Tuesday, August 26, 2008

Hurricane Gustav and the Cone of Uncertainty

Cone of uncertainty-I have never heard this term before.

Gustav is forecast to be a major Category 3 hurricane with top winds of 120 mph about 300 miles south of New Orleans on Sunday afternoon, according to the 4 p.m. forecast of the National Hurricane Center.

As Hurricane Gustav churns over Haiti and looks like it may touch Cuba, I worry about its possible path towards New Orleans. At this time it is way to early to say where it is going or what kind of strength it may have. Computer models put New Orleans in its cone of uncertainty.

from Wunder blog weather undergound
The final landfall location of Gustav depends on the strength and speed of a trough of low pressure forecast to move across the Midwest U.S. late this week. At present, there is no way to guess which location in the Gulf of Mexico is the most likely. Keep in mind that the cone of uncertainty is correct only about 2/3 of the time--1/3 of the time, we can expect the storm's position to be in error by more than what the cone of uncertainty suggests.

Forums are active with speculation and fear from those affected by a possible storm that seems certain to intensify over water and will most likely hit landfall somewhere in the gulf--let us all think positive thoughts that it won't be New Orleans and everyone will be safe and secure everywhere.

Let's take a Look at Strom Protection

The flood protection provided by the U.S. government to New Orleans

These images are in thanks to John M. Barry

John M. Barry is a prize-winning and New York Times best-selling author whose books have won more than twenty awards. Rising Tide: The Great Mississippi Flood of 1927 and How It Changed America, won the 1998 Francis Parkman Prize of the Society of American Historians for the year’s best book of American history.

New Orleans, you are in our thoughts.